March leading indicators fell to -.3% in United states.Number is for the month of march.That was larger than the consensus estimate of -0.2% and marked the third straight monthly decline in the series. The February report was revised higher to show a decline of -0.2% versus a previously reported -0.4%. Looking at the components within the index, it was M2 and the interest rate spread that were the big offsets again, as they contributed 0.34% and 0.26%, respectively, to the leading index.
Consumer expectations added 0.08%, consumer goods orders were estimated to be flat, and all other components were reported to have a negative net contribution with building permits (-0.26%) the biggest drag.
Purpose
The purpose of the leading index is straightforward: It is designed to signal turning points in the business cycle.
Composition
The index of leading indicators includes the ten economic statistics listed below.
1.The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate.
2.The inflation-adjusted, M2 measure of the money supply.
3.The average manufacturing workweek.
4.Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
5.The S&P 500 measure of stock prices.
6.The vendor performance component of the NAPM index.
7.The average level of weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.
8.Building permits.
9.The University of Michigan index of consumer expectations.
10.Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods.
source:briefing
